A crucial moment has arrived for the Labour Party, as the fate of Andy Burnham hangs in the balance. The decision on whether he can run as a candidate in an upcoming parliamentary by-election rests with the Labour Party's National Executive Committee (NEC).
The Battle for Gorton and Denton
The BBC has learned that allies of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer might attempt to prevent Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, from standing in Gorton and Denton. Their concern? That Burnham could pose a leadership threat if he returns to Westminster.
Burnham, a former cabinet minister under Gordon Brown, has expressed his desire to support, not undermine, the Labour government. However, this has sparked anger among several Labour MPs, who are divided on the issue. The NEC is expected to make its decision today at 11:00 GMT.
The seat in Greater Manchester became vacant after Andrew Gwynne stepped down as an MP due to health reasons last Friday. As a directly elected mayor, Burnham requires approval from the NEC to enter the race as the party's candidate.
A Tough Choice for the Prime Minister
The prime minister and his allies face a monumental decision. Should they block a popular mayor from running in a potentially challenging by-election, or allow a potential leadership contender to enter Westminster and possibly challenge Starmer's leadership in the near future? It's a delicate balance between political strategy and public perception.
All signs point to Burnham's supporters attempting to block his candidacy when the NEC meets. Their willingness to take the political fallout demonstrates the seriousness with which they view the threat of Burnham or others challenging Starmer.
In a letter announcing his intentions, Burnham highlighted a "direct threat" to Greater Manchester's values from a divisive brand of politics. He explained his departure from Westminster nearly a decade ago, believing it wasn't serving the people of his region. As mayor, he aimed to pioneer a different approach, but now feels the need to return and bring similar changes to the national level.
The Leadership Challenge
Speculation surrounds the prime minister's potential leadership challenge after the May elections, which will involve votes in the Welsh and Scottish Parliaments, as well as some local councils in England. Burnham has been mentioned as a possible contender, but he can only launch a challenge if he is an MP.
Burnham has assured the prime minister that he would be in Parliament to support the government's work. Labour MPs are divided, with some seeing him as a strong candidate who should be allowed to stand, while others believe contesting his mayoralty could open the door to Reform winning the mayoral election.
London Mayor Sir Sadiq Khan supports Burnham's right to be an MP if he chooses, while deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell emphasizes the need to focus on putting the best team forward and avoiding internal conflicts.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband sees Burnham as a significant asset in Parliament, hoping Gorton and Denton party members will have the option to select him. However, Health Secretary Wes Streeting urges caution, highlighting the need to consider the implications, including the potential for a mayoral election in Greater Manchester.
If Burnham were to be selected and win the Gorton and Denton seat, he would have to resign as Greater Manchester mayor, triggering a new election. Several Labour sources suggest the NEC could block his application due to the expense of a mayoral election for the party and the taxpayer, with the last election costing around £4.7m.
Gorton and Denton has traditionally been a Labour stronghold, with the party winning the seat in 2024 by a majority of 13,000. However, Labour's popularity has declined since then, facing potential challenges from Reform UK and the Green Party, who came second and third in the general election.
John McTernan, former political secretary to Tony Blair, believes Burnham is stepping forward in the party's best interests. He warns that Reform forming a government would pose a challenge not just to Labour but to the achievements of mayors across England.
Labour MP Jo White suggests Burnham may be the best candidate but urges him to consider his legacy as Greater Manchester mayor. She questions whether he is willing to sacrifice the mayoralty to Reform or another party to pursue his parliamentary ambitions.
This decision has far-reaching implications for the Labour Party and the future of British politics. Will Burnham's candidacy be approved, or will the NEC block his path? The outcome could shape the party's direction and the political landscape for years to come.
